金融集聚、生产率增长与城乡收入差距的实证分析——基于动态空间面板模型

本文利用中国2003-2013年285个地级及以上城市的统计数据，采用动态空间面板模型实证分析了金融集聚对城市总体生产率增长及其内部城乡收入差距的影响，研究结论表明：金融集聚是促进城市总体生产率增长的重要推动力，同时也是导致城市内部城乡收入差距扩大的关键因素，这主要是因为金融集聚显著推动了城市居民人均收入水平的提高，而对农村居民人均收入水平的提升作用不显著。本文的政策含义在于，在城市金融集聚的扩散阶段还没有到来之前，政府旨在缓解城乡收入差距的金融政策可能会抑制城市总体生产率增长。     

技术指标能够预测商品期货价格吗? 来自中国的证据

基于移动价格平均、动量和移动交易量平均三类技术指标,研究了其对中国大宗商品期货价格的预测效果,并以基于宏观变量的预测为基准比较分析了其预测能力.主要结论如下,第一,技术指标能够在样本内和样本外检验中有效预测我国大宗商品期货价格,其预测效果显著超过已有文献中广泛使用的宏观经济指标.第二,对于不同的模型设定和数据频率,技术指标预测效果表现稳健.第三,从资产配置角度出发,基于技术指标的预测具有显著经济意义,能够显著提高资产配置效率,获得超额收益.相关结果能够为大宗商品投资及风险管理提供经验和策略支持.     

Explaining Italian “exceptionalism” and its end: Minimum income from neglect to hyper-politicization

Traditionally at the margins of the political debate, minimum income protection has recently become a key issue in Italian politics. After decades of social and political “neglect” letting Italy the only European country (with Greece) still lacking an anti-poverty minimum income safety net in the 2010s, finally a national programme called Inclusion Income was introduced in 2018, then replaced by a more robustly financed scheme, the Citizenship Income in 2019. The introduction of these new programmes was the object of an intense political debate, which raises two main puzzles. Why a policy field characterized by the low political resources of would be beneficiaries and low incidence on the overall welfare budget has become so important in the political debate? How did it occur in Italy, where minimum income protection had been absent in political discourses for at least five decades after World War II? To answer these questions, this article first elaborates a novel theoretical framework which combines the main properties of socio-political demand and political supply in order to explain the scope and direction of minimum income reforms. Second, it provides an analytically oriented reconstruction of MIS policy trajectory in Italy in the three different phases: the phase of MIS “neglect” (1948–1992) characterized by inertia; the period of political “contentiousness” (1993–2012), marked by attempts of path departure followed by policy reversals; the more recent phase leading to the introduction and institutionalization of a MIS. Third, the article provides a theoretically framed interpretation of the overall MIS trajectory in Italy.     

Is the BasicsCard “shaming” Aboriginal people? Exploring the differing responses to welfare quarantining in Cape York

As part of the Cape York Welfare Reform Trial (CYWRT), which has been running in the remote Aboriginal towns of Aurukun, Hope Vale, Mossman Gorge and Coen since 2008, Family Responsibilities Commissioners have the unprecedented ability to quarantine welfare payments. Critics claim this “BasicsCard,” which cannot be spent on alcohol, tobacco, pornography or gambling, brings shame to Aboriginal people – marking them as dependants, deemed incapable of responsible spending. Evaluations of the CYWRT paint a more complicated picture. While many of the “spectators” of the CYWRT report “welfare reform stigma,” the “subjects” themselves are more positive. This paper draws on ethnographic research in Hope Vale to argue that these categories overlap with loosely defined, porous social groups that developed during the town's mission past, described as the “engaged” and “embedded” Hope Valers, respectively. The engaged group tends to be more aware of and sensitive to the views of the dominant society and to subscribe to its “ideology of respectability.” Meanwhile, the latter group tends to adhere to a more egalitarian “ideology of relatedness,” and do not experience the shame, even when their own welfare is quarantined, because the behaviours that trigger quarantining are normalised within their highly circumscribed domain.     

资产证券化与金融市场动态关系研究——基于美国CDO产品的证据

文章从产品市场链的视角出发,以美国代表性证券化产品CDO为例,从理论机理和实证检验两个方面研究了资产证券化与广义金融市场的动态关系。结果表明:资产证券化把房地产市场、信贷市场、债券市场和股票市场紧密联系在一起,形成一种独特的市场链结构,该市场链反映出证券化产品与各个金融市场之间的强弱关系以及风险传导顺序;短期内证券化产品与市场链上的远端市场关系很弱,长期内证券化产品与所有金融市场均保持一种稳定正向关系,说明证券化产品如若发生风险暴露,短期内风险只会在市场链的近端市场发生传导而不会影响到远端市场,但在长期,风险则会通过市场链传递给整个金融系统,最终可能引发市场动荡。     

The intergenerational transmission of income mobility between mothers and their young adult daughters: The mediating role of their daughters' educational attainment

This study examines whether the daughters' educational attainment mediates the intergenerational transmission of economic mobility between mothers and their young adult daughters. To create mother–daughter dyads, two data sets were combined: The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 79 for Children and Young Adults (NLSY79 CY). A total of 2,456 dyads were included for analysis. We used a mediation model to explore the relationship between mothers' income and their young adult daughters' income. Mothers' income was associated with their young adult daughters' educational attainment and income. The mediation model indicated partial mediation of the relationship between mothers' income and their young adult daughters' income via their young adult daughters' educational attainment. Addressing issues of income inequality among mothers may serve as a buffer against the low upward mobility across generations for their young adult daughters raised by low-income mothers. It is imperative to provide programs and financial assistance for mothers to bolster their income and thereby their daughters' educational attainment and income in young adulthood and therefore improve economic mobility from mothers to daughters.     

Socioeconomic status and the dynamics of preferences for income inequality in the United States, 1978–2016

Although considerable evidence indicates that public preferences for income inequality and redistribution vary across socioeconomic groups (i.e., occupation and income), much less is known about the temporal dynamics of these preferences. The purpose of this study is (a) to examine whether the attitudinal distance between managerial/professional workers and unskilled manual workers has changed (converged or diverged) over time and to (b) explore the reasons for and implications of the dynamics of preferences in the past several decades. Using data from the General Social Survey 1978–2016 (23 time‐points; N = 27,211), this study finds that the influence of occupational class has lost some of its significance in shaping public preferences for income inequality and that the declining effect of occupation can be explained in part by the attitudinal convergence between better‐ and less‐educated citizens. Findings suggest that proequality coalitions across educational boundaries play a remedial role in bridging the occupational divide over government redistribution in the United States.     

A semi-parametric method for estimating the beta coefficients of the hidden two-sided asset return jumps

ABSTRACT

We introduce a new methodology for estimating the parameters of a two-sided jump model, which aims at decomposing the daily stock return evolution into (unobservable) positive and negative jumps as well as Brownian noise. The parameters of interest are the jump beta coefficients which measure the influence of the market jumps on the stock returns, and are latent components. For this purpose, at first we use the Variance Gamma (VG) distribution which is frequently used in modeling financial time series and leads to the revelation of the hidden market jumps' distributions. Then, our method is based on the central moments of the stock returns for estimating the parameters of the model. It is proved that the proposed method provides always a solution in terms of the jump beta coefficients. We thus achieve a semi-parametric fit to the empirical data. The methodology itself serves as a criterion to test the fit of any sets of parameters to the empirical returns. The analysis is applied to NASDAQ and Google returns during the 2006–2008 period.